Bitcoin ETFs Lose $1.28B as 2026 Flow Sinks to -$828M
The week in flows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs closed the reporting week of November 2 through 6 with a net outflow of -$1,281.7M, the category's worst weekly figure this column has reported. Session by session: -$398.6M Monday, -$115.6M Tuesday, +$74.6M Wednesday, -$430.2M Thursday, and -$411.9M Friday. Only Wednesday's modest gain broke up an otherwise one-directional week, and it wasn't enough to offset even one of the other four sessions on its own.
Thursday's -$430.2M was the week's single largest outflow in dollar terms, and it landed on a session where zero of twelve products reported a positive flow — the most lopsided breadth reading of the week. Friday's -$411.9M, the most recent session bryptoflows' pulse model scores, ranked at the 6.1th percentile of all 725 trading sessions on record since January 2024, with a z-score of -1.66 — a genuinely weak session, even if not quite in the bottom-2% territory October's two tail events reached. Together, Thursday and Friday form a two-session negative streak that erased essentially all of the week's earlier, smaller losses and then some.
bryptoflows' rolling averages show how the week fits into the broader slide. The three-session average (Wed-Fri) sits at -$255.8M a day. The five-session (weekly) average is -$256.3M, both roughly double the ten-session average of -$148.4M a day, which is itself running well behind the twenty-session average of -$70.6M. The sixty-session average is still +$64.2M, positive only because it still carries the tail of September and early October's stronger run. The five-session flow-acceleration reading came in at -$215.9M — a sharp deceleration, with the current week running meaningfully worse than the stretch it's compared against.
Where the moves came from
BlackRock's IBIT drove essentially the entire decline. It was negative in all five sessions — -$405.3M Monday, -$95.0M Tuesday, -$201.2M Wednesday, -$105.0M Thursday, -$403.0M Friday — for a net -$1,209.5M on the week, or roughly 94% of the category's total loss. That extends IBIT's own run to a six-session negative streak on bryptoflows' attribution model, its longest in the window this column tracks, and a striking reversal for a fund that has absorbed more net flow since inception ($65,100.9M, or 116.7% of the category's lifetime total) than the category itself has taken in.
Fidelity's FBTC was the week's only consistently constructive fund, net +$93.1M on gains Tuesday (+$6.8M), Wednesday (+$236.7M) and Friday (+$42.8M) that outran a single -$199.9M Thursday. Bitwise's BITB finished at +$16.6M, though its own streak reads negative-1 after a -$20.5M Friday wiped out gains built up earlier in the week. ARK 21Shares' ARKB netted -$19.1M on a two-session negative streak, with Wednesday's +$19.9M gain the only bright spot. Grayscale's legacy GBTC shed -$61.0M, all of it Thursday (-$49.9M) and Friday (-$11.1M), extending its own streak to two negative sessions. Grayscale's newer BTC mini trust gave back -$52.6M, concentrated entirely in Tuesday's session. Franklin Templeton's EZBC lost -$32.9M and VanEck's HODL lost -$23.6M, both entirely on Thursday. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the week's only fund with no negative session at all, adding +$3.3M on Tuesday alone. Invesco Galaxy's BTCO added +$4.0M, all Wednesday. Valkyrie's BRRR and WisdomTree's BTCW reported exactly zero every session.
Breadth narrowed as the week went on. Monday opened with one fund positive against one negative and ten flat. Tuesday widened slightly to three positive against two negative. Wednesday was the week's broadest session, four positive against one negative. Thursday inverted that entirely — zero of twelve products positive, six negative, six flat — and Friday recovered only slightly, to one positive against four negative. bryptoflows' concentration reading for Friday's session came in at a product HHI of 0.667, well above the category's life-to-date average of roughly 0.41, a reflection of how narrowly the week's selling concentrated in IBIT specifically rather than spreading evenly across the category.
Zooming out
Cumulative net flow into the category since inception now stands at $55,766.4M, down from roughly $57,048.1M a week ago. The drawdown from the category's all-time cumulative peak of $62,735.9M widened to -$6,969.5M, or roughly 11.1% below peak, from 9.1% the week before — the steepest drawdown this column has reported. Period totals through Friday's close: week-to-date -$1,281.7M, month-to-date (November, one week in) -$1,281.7M, quarter-to-date (Q4, five weeks in) -$1,797.6M, and year-to-date -$827.8M. That year-to-date figure is the headline number of the week on its own: it stood at +$453.9M as recently as October 30, turned negative for the first time in 2026 at -$60.3M through November 3, and this week's outflow alone is responsible for essentially the entire additional swing to -$827.8M. 2026 has gone, in roughly a week and a half, from a positive year for the category to its worst year-to-date reading on record. Life-to-date concentration is essentially unchanged at a product HHI of 0.41 and issuer HHI of 0.44; a single week does not move a measure built on nearly three years of history.
Strategy: buying resumes, but the cushion is almost gone
Strategy's November 2 8-K reported direction acquired: a purchase of 811 BTC for $65.5 million at an average price of $80,846, lifting total holdings to 849,327 BTC against a cost basis of $64.08 billion, or $75,451 a coin. That ends the zero-purchase week disclosed October 26 — the company's first "none" filing since September — and returns Strategy to buying, though at a modest pace: 811 BTC is well short of the four- and five-figure weeks the company posted through most of the summer. The purchase was funded by an at-the-market sale of 1,178,552 MSTR shares for $164.0 million in net proceeds, more than double the $65.5 million the bitcoin purchase itself cost. What the remaining roughly $98.5 million of that raise went toward is not disclosed in the data bryptoflows carries, and this column will not guess; it is worth flagging as an open question rather than assuming it all went toward further buying or toward one of the company's preferred-dividend obligations.
The more consequential number is what moved on the other side of the ledger. bryptoflows' own live price feed shows bitcoin at roughly $75,781 as of this writing, down sharply from the $78,349.50 this site's own midweek macro column used on November 4 and from the $77,611 this column itself reported last Saturday. At that price, the 849,327 BTC position is worth in the neighborhood of $64.36 billion against its $64.08 billion cost basis — an unrealized gain of only about $280 million, or roughly 0.4% above average cost. That is the thinnest cushion this column has tracked, down from the 2.9% reported last Saturday and the 3.8% the midweek macro column reported on a brief bitcoin bounce three days ago. At current levels, a further decline of only about 0.4% in bitcoin's price — to somewhere near Strategy's own $75,451 average cost — would put the entire 849,327 BTC position underwater on paper for the first time this column has tracked. Average cost and current price are, as of this writing, separated by less than $330 a coin.
What to watch
- Whether bitcoin's price stabilizes above Strategy's $75,451 average cost or breaks through it; the gap is now narrow enough that a single ordinary trading session could decide it.
- Whether IBIT's six-session negative streak extends into a seventh, or reverses — the fund drove roughly 94% of this week's category-wide loss and has been the single largest swing factor in both directions all autumn.
- Strategy's next 8-K, due around November 9, for whether the 811 BTC pace holds, grows, or gives way to another zero or sale week given how thin the cushion above cost has become.
- Whether 2026's year-to-date flow, now at -$827.8M, finds a floor or continues deepening; it has moved more than $1.2 billion in the wrong direction in just the last eight trading days.
- MSCI's eligibility review naming Strategy among companies without substantial operating assets, with a final list of affected names due November 11 — still an open question rather than a settled one.
Track the flow data live on the flow pulse overview and ETF flow dashboards, and Strategy's full treasury and financing history on the MSTR breakdown. Flow and attribution figures throughout are read directly from bryptoflows' own API — ETF flows from Farside Investors, Strategy detail from SEC filings — current through the November 6 close and the November 2 filing respectively. Bitcoin price figures in the Strategy section are from bryptoflows' own live price feed as of this writing. Retrieved and published November 7, 2026.