Bitcoin Flow and Macro Insights

Weekly recaps of US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, issuer rotation, and Strategy's treasury activity, plus a midweek macro read from our own live data.

• MACRO · 4 Nov 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: ETF Flows Turn Negative for 2026The bitcoin macro outlook has turned, with December Fed hike odds at 80% and 2026 ETF flows negative for the first time this year.
• SUPPLY · 3 Nov 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock: ETFs Returned 14,596 BTC in 20 DaysThe bitcoin supply shock weakened again: US spot ETFs returned 14,596 BTC against 9,000 mined over 20 sessions, a -1.62x reading and the lowest since July.
• ETF FLOWS · 2 Nov 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows: IBIT Slows to $578M From $1.73BBitcoin ETF inflows open November with IBIT's 20-session total down to $578M from $1.73B, while every other US spot fund combined has shed $1.39B.
• MONTHLY · 31 Oct 2026Monthly Review: Bitcoin ETFs Post a Losing Octoberbryptoflows' monthly review: US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $515.9M in October, the first net-negative month since June, as bitcoin fell from $87K to $76K.
• WEEKLY · 31 Oct 2026Bitcoin ETFs Shed $202M as a Friday Crash Erases the WeekUS spot Bitcoin ETFs fell $202.4M this week after a $643.2M Friday outflow, the category's second bottom-2% session this month, wiped out four days of gains.
• SIGNAL · 30 Oct 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Recovers 11.5 Points to -3.4bryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score recovered 11.5 points to -3.4 on all eight components, but supply absorption still cancels every positive.
• TREASURY · 29 Oct 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Stay at 848,517 as Cash Hits $242MStrategy's bitcoin holdings held flat at 848,517 BTC last week as the company bought none and spent $204.9 million buying back preferred stock instead.
• MACRO · 28 Oct 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: Flows Improve Into Fed's 95% HoldBitcoin's macro outlook is mixed as the Fed decides today — yields keep easing but the dollar is rebounding toward 2026 highs, even as ETF flows turn positive.
• SUPPLY · 27 Oct 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock Reverses: ETFs Hand Back 3,750 BTCThe bitcoin supply shock has inverted: US spot ETFs returned 3,750 BTC against 9,000 mined in 20 sessions, a -0.42x reading and the first negative since July.
• ETF FLOWS · 26 Oct 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows Need $314M to Keep October PositiveBitcoin ETF inflows open October's last five sessions $313.5M underwater, with BlackRock's IBIT up $851.6M over 20 sessions and every rival fund down.
• WEEKLY · 24 Oct 2026Bitcoin ETFs Eke Out $301M as a Bottom-2% Day BitesUS spot Bitcoin ETFs netted +$301.2M this week, snapping a two-week slide, after Thursday's -$635.6M session landed in the bottom 2% of all sessions on record.
• SIGNAL · 23 Oct 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Score Falls to -14.9Institutional bitcoin demand scores -14.9 with all eight components live, and a negative supply-absorption window supplies 13.6 of those points.
• TREASURY · 22 Oct 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Hit 848,517 as Cash ThinsStrategy's bitcoin holdings reached 848,517 BTC this week on a stock-funded buy, while its cash cushion fell by more than half in a month.
• MACRO · 21 Oct 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook Improves, Demand Score Flips to -4.9The bitcoin macro outlook improved this week as yields, the dollar and Fed hike odds all fell — but bryptoflows' demand score dropped from +28.9 to -4.9.
• SUPPLY · 20 Oct 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock: ETFs Took 6,430 BTC in One DayUS spot ETFs absorbed 6,430 BTC on October 19 against 450 mined, a 14.3x session that interrupts the bitcoin supply shock stall but may not hold.
• ETF FLOWS · 19 Oct 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows Stall as IBIT Drives 72% of SellingBitcoin ETF inflows need $666M across five sessions to stay positive after BlackRock's IBIT drove 72% of last week's $228M of US spot ETF outflows.
• SIGNAL · 16 Oct 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Rebounds to 28.9 on a $5M Daybryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score rebounded to 28.9 on all eight components, but 7 of the 11.5-point gain came from a single $5.1M session.
• TREASURY · 15 Oct 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Hit 848,250 in Smallest 2026 BuyStrategy bitcoin holdings reached 848,250 BTC after the company's smallest 2026 purchase, 250 BTC, while its cost-basis cushion narrowed this week.
• MACRO · 14 Oct 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook Improves, but ETFs Shed $425MThe bitcoin macro outlook turned friendlier this week as yields eased and the dollar slipped, but bryptoflows' data shows ETFs still shed $425M.
• SUPPLY · 13 Oct 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock Stalls: ETFs Returned 6,539 BTCThe bitcoin supply shock has stalled: ETFs returned 6,539 BTC against 4,500 mined over ten sessions, and 2026's absorption ratio is now net negative.
• ETF FLOWS · 12 Oct 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hinge on a $2.39B Week That ExpiresBitcoin ETF inflows are negative on every window under twenty sessions, and 122% of the twenty-session total came from one week that rolls off next Monday.
• WEEKLY · 10 Oct 2026Bitcoin ETFs Shed $678.9M as a Wednesday Shakeout Hits FlowsUS spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $678.9M this week, the category's worst five-day stretch in months, after a leverage-driven selloff below $84,000 on Wednesday.
• SIGNAL · 9 Oct 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Drops to 17.4, Six-Week Lowbryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score fell 25 points to 17.4 on all eight components, as breadth, persistence and concentration turned negative.
• TREASURY · 8 Oct 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Hit 848,000 BTC, Q3 Flips to GainStrategy's bitcoin holdings reached 848,000 BTC on a small, cash-and-stock buy, while its Q3 filing shows a $20.91 billion fair-value swing to a gain.
• MACRO · 7 Oct 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: BTC Down 2.4% as Yields Hit 2002 HighThe bitcoin macro outlook split this week: Fed hike odds for October collapsed, yet 30-year yields hit a 2002 high and BTC fell 2.4% as ETF demand cooled.
• SUPPLY · 6 Oct 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock Eases to 2.6x, Last Week Just 0.6xUS spot ETFs absorbed 23,231 BTC against 9,000 mined over 20 sessions, easing the bitcoin supply shock to 2.58x, but the last five sessions fell to 0.63x.
• ETF FLOWS · 5 Oct 2026Three Issuers Supply 114% of Bitcoin ETF InflowsBitcoin ETF inflows ran $2,186.7M over 20 sessions, but three issuers supplied $2,500.8M of it while the other eight were a net $314.1M drag.
• WEEKLY · 3 Oct 2026Bitcoin ETF Flows Cool to $82.9M as September's Rally FadesUS spot Bitcoin ETFs took in just $82.9M this week, a sharp deceleration from September's record run after a nine-day inflow streak broke.
• SIGNAL · 2 Oct 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Eases to 42.4 as Breadth Sinksbryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score eased to 42.4 on all eight components, as only 3 of 12 ETFs bought and a six-session flow streak broke.
• TREASURY · 1 Oct 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Hit 847,666 BTC, Stock-FundedStrategy's bitcoin holdings rose to 847,666 BTC after a $142.7 million buy funded entirely by new stock sales rather than cash on hand this week.
• MACRO · 30 Sep 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: Yields at 19-Year High, BTC Down 3%The bitcoin macro outlook worsened this week as 10-year yields hit a 19-year high and the dollar firmed, while BTC gave back 3% even as ETF inflows held.
• SUPPLY · 29 Sep 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock Rose to 3.8x as ETF Dollars FadedUS spot ETFs absorbed 34,005 BTC against 9,000 mined over 20 sessions, lifting the bitcoin supply shock reading to 3.78x even as dollar inflows shrank.
• ETF FLOWS · 28 Sep 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows Faded 87% in Five Straight SessionsUS spot bitcoin ETF inflows shrank every session last week, from $999.0M Monday to $134.5M Friday — the longest unbroken fade in 695 sessions on record.
• MONTHLY · 26 Sep 2026Monthly Review: Bitcoin ETFs Post a $2.7B Septemberbryptoflows' monthly review: US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2,699.2M in September, 2026's second-best month, as bitcoin swung from $75K to $87K.
• WEEKLY · 26 Sep 2026Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive for 2026 on a $2.4B WeekUS spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2,385.8M this week, pushing 2026 year-to-date flow positive for the first time as bitcoin rallied toward $87,000.
• SIGNAL · 25 Sep 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Doubles to 49.7 in One Weekbryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score more than doubled to 49.7 on all eight components, as the flow roll-off set to sink it was replaced instead.
• TREASURY · 24 Sep 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Reach 846,000 BTC on New BuyStrategy's bitcoin holdings rose to 846,000 BTC after a $75.7 million purchase, a fraction of the $174 million it spent buying back preferred stock.
• MACRO · 23 Sep 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: BTC Rallies 13% as Fed Turns HawkishThe bitcoin macro outlook turned genuinely strange this week — yields, the dollar and a regulatory setback all moved against BTC, which rallied 13% anyway.
• SUPPLY · 22 Sep 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock: 11,528 BTC Taken in One SessionUS spot ETFs absorbed 11,528 BTC on Monday, 25.6x the coins mined that day and the largest single-session bitcoin supply shock since November 2024.
• ETF FLOWS · 21 Sep 2026Fidelity Took 72% of Friday's Bitcoin ETF InflowsFidelity's FBTC absorbed 72% of Friday's $433M in bitcoin ETF inflows — only the third time in 674 sessions one non-BlackRock fund has owned a big day.
• WEEKLY · 19 Sep 2026Bitcoin ETFs Erase a $586M Slide to End the Week FlatUS spot Bitcoin ETFs fell $586M into Wednesday's Fed decision, then fully recovered to net +$6.1M for the week as bitcoin rallied past $80,000.
• SIGNAL · 18 Sep 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Falls to 23.8, Third Week Downbryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score fell to 23.8 — a third straight decline — and 93% of the flow holding it up rolls off within five sessions.
• TREASURY · 17 Sep 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Flat, $926M Spent on BuybacksStrategy bitcoin holdings held at 845,050 BTC this week as seven straight filings show $926M funneled into preferred-stock buybacks, not bitcoin.
• MACRO · 16 Sep 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: Fed Hike Odds Hit 93%, -$450M DayThe bitcoin macro outlook has turned hawkish as Fed hike odds hit 93% and yields hit 19-year highs; ETFs posted their most one-sided outflow day in weeks.
• SUPPLY · 15 Sep 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock Stalls: ETFs Hand Back 3,949 BTCThe bitcoin supply shock still reads 5.2x over twenty sessions, but ETFs returned 3,949 coins across the last five. The headline is a rear-view number.
• ETF FLOWS · 14 Sep 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows Go Quiet: $25.2M Across 12 FundsBitcoin ETF inflows open the week from a standstill — Friday's entire 12-fund complex traded just $25.2M gross, the sixth-quietest session on record.
• WEEKLY · 12 Sep 2026Bitcoin ETF Streak Snaps: $462.7M Outflow WeekUS spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $462.7M this week, ending three positive weeks, as ARKB drove half the outflow and BlackRock's IBIT itself turned net negative.
• SIGNAL · 11 Sep 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand Score Falls 26 Points to 28.9bryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score fell from 55.2 to 28.9 in a week — not because buying shrank, but because only 1 of 12 ETFs bought.
• TREASURY · 10 Sep 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Unchanged, $176M to BuybacksStrategy bitcoin holdings held at 845,050 BTC this week as the company spent $176.3M buying back preferred stock instead of bitcoin.
• MACRO · 9 Sep 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: BTC Holds $79.5K as Oil Nears $100The bitcoin macro outlook this week: Fed hike odds swung 66%-48%-58%, oil neared $100 on Iran, and BTC held near $79,500 as ETF flow data stayed strong.
• SUPPLY · 8 Sep 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock: Three-Month Ratio Hits 0.77xThe bitcoin supply shock cleared zero at three months: ETFs absorbed 0.77 coins per coin mined over 60 sessions, the first positive reading since May.
• ETF FLOWS · 7 Sep 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows Ex-BlackRock Turn Positive: +$47MStrip out BlackRock and 60-session bitcoin ETF inflows are +$47.1M — the first positive reading since May 14, after 77 straight negative sessions.
• WEEKLY · 5 Sep 2026Bitcoin ETFs Post $987M Week on Best Day Since JanuaryUS spot Bitcoin ETFs added $986.7M this week, powered by a $730.8M record day, though breadth stayed narrow with Strategy's treasury unchanged at 845,050 BTC.
• SIGNAL · 4 Sep 2026Institutional Bitcoin Demand at 55: Deep, Not Broadbryptoflows' institutional bitcoin demand score reads 55.2 of 100 on all eight components — but two of them supply two-thirds of it, and breadth lags badly.
• TREASURY · 3 Sep 2026Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Hit 845,050 BTC as Buying ResumesStrategy's bitcoin holdings rose to 845,050 BTC after a $369.7M purchase at $80,318 a coin, ending nine weekly filings without an acquisition.
• MACRO · 2 Sep 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: Fed Hike Odds Jump to 66%The bitcoin macro outlook turned hawkish: Fed hike odds hit 66% and bitcoin's institutional-support score fell from 49 to 28 in a week.
• SUPPLY · 1 Sep 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock: 5.2x at One Month, Zero at ThreeUS spot ETFs absorbed 5.15x new bitcoin supply over 20 sessions and exactly none over 60 — the bitcoin supply shock is a one-month story, not a quarter.
• ETF FLOWS · 31 Aug 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows: +$385M Over 60 Days, and It's All IBITThe 60-session bitcoin ETF net flow crossed above zero on August 27, its first positive reading since May — but strip out IBIT and it is still -$344M.
• MONTHLY · 29 Aug 2026Monthly Review: Bitcoin ETFs Post 2026's Best Month as Price Jumps 30%US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $3.32B in August, 2026's strongest month by a wide margin, as price ran from $62K to an $81K high and Strategy net-sold bitcoin.
• WEEKLY · 29 Aug 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows Cool to $924M as August's Rally Stalls Near $80,000US spot Bitcoin ETFs added $924.5M this week, half the prior week's pace, as a nine-session inflow streak snapped and Strategy's buying pause hit eight weeks.
• MACRO · 26 Aug 2026Bitcoin Macro Outlook: $80K Rally, No Rate Cut PricedBitcoin topped $80,000 as the dollar slid and the Treasury doubled bond buybacks, but Fed futures still show almost no chance of a September rate cut.
• SUPPLY · 25 Aug 2026Bitcoin Supply Shock: ETFs Absorbed 4.2x New SupplyOver the last 20 sessions US spot ETFs took 38,016 BTC against 9,000 mined — a 4.22x absorption ratio, the strongest bitcoin supply shock reading since May.
• ETF FLOWS · 24 Aug 2026Bitcoin ETF Inflows: IBIT Drove 69% of a $1.92B WeekUS spot bitcoin ETF inflows hit $1,917.8M over five sessions, the best week in 45 — but BlackRock took 69% of it, and the 60-day trend is still negative.
• WEEKLY · 22 Aug 2026Bitcoin ETFs Post Their Best Week of 2026 as Strategy's Bitcoin Freeze Drags Toward Two MonthsUS spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.92B over five straight sessions as price ripped higher, while Strategy's own dataset shows no bitcoin purchase since August 3.
• MACRO · 19 Aug 2026The Biggest Global Bond Rout in Decades, and Bitcoin Barely MovedUS 30-year yields hit 2007 highs and Japan's 30-year cleared 4%, yet Bitcoin closed higher and ETF flows turned positive. That non-reaction is the story.
• WEEKLY · 15 Aug 2026Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Negative as MSCI Opens a Consultation That Could Drop Strategy From Its IndexesUS spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $385.2M this week, erasing nearly half the prior week's rebound, as MSCI proposed rules that could drop Strategy from major indexes.
• MACRO · 12 Aug 2026Oil Reopens the Inflation Question and Bitcoin's ETF Bid Snaps on CueA stalled Hormuz deal pushed crude 5% higher and the 10-year to 4.72%. Gold caught the safe-haven bid; Bitcoin got a $144.6M outflow instead.
• WEEKLY · 8 Aug 2026Bitcoin ETFs String Together a Five-Day Inflow Streak as Strategy Sells Below Cost AgainUS spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $865M over five straight sessions this week, while Strategy sold 1,638 BTC below its average cost to fund preferred dividends.
• MACRO · 6 Aug 2026Bitcoin Sits Out a Record-High Tape as September Fed Hike Odds FirmEquities set records and the dollar broke below 100, yet Bitcoin sits 21% under its May high. The ETF bid is recovering; Strategy's treasury is not.
• WEEKLY · 13 Jul 2026US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Sharply Negative — Week of July 7–13, 2026US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $493M over five sessions as breadth narrowed to two funds and BlackRock's IBIT went red, while Strategy added 203,000 BTC.